aapl

Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) closed at $68.09. SHLD is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on November 19. SHLD November call option implied volatility is at 49, puts are at 50; December calls are at 52, puts are at 62; verses its 26-week average of 50, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are more expensive than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 41; 26-week average is 43.

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 154 on 11/3/09. ISEE 10-day moving average is 126.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Back in June, there was a report on WalletPop that Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Kmart spied on customers who participated in an online marketing study. The company paid participants in the study $10 if they would download and retain software for "My SHC Community."

The participants were told that the software would help them "participate in exciting, engaging, and on-going interactions" on their own terms. Sears noted that the software would only monitor the participants' online browsing. Not so, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which reported that the software captured secured sessions from participants -- including online banking. The FTC and Sears came to a settlement and the company was less than apologetic for its maneuver.

Not long ago, I found myself in Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) buying a video game. While at the point of sale -- which was a nightmare, not because of anything related to the checkout process, but because a jerk cut in front of me and, after the completion of his transaction, proceeded to deluge the poor associate at the register with a bunch of random, techno nerd-talk that said associate clearly couldn't care any less about (but I digress) -- I noticed something pertaining to a Christmas Club card. Sounded interesting, but I didn't pay much attention to the selling material.

Well, last night I was checking out some articles at Brandweek.com, and lo and behold, I came across this one discussing the holiday card. You know how Christmas Clubs work at banks, correct? Same principle applies here. In a simple nutshell, you get the plastic, you store funds on it, and then you can access those funds later on in the season to acquire presents. It's basically like a gift card that you use for budgeting purposes. Not only is Sears involved in this, but so is Kmart. And there's a promotion going on that's mentioned in the article where you can earn a nominal amount of bonus money on it. I don't know the details; I would suggest checking with Sears/Kmart for further information.

Durable goods are products that should last more than 3 years. That usually includes things like appliances, furnishings, and heavy equipment. The Commerce Department tracks this data and the number of orders for these things popped up an extra 4.9% in July, which was a nice surprise.

Why do I care whether North Americans are buying a new fridge? This is actually a metric you should watch for insight into potential corporate profits. If durable goods (which tend to cost a lot) are being purchased at an increasing rate, it bodes well for the companies that produce and sell those products.

What would happen if a brilliant hedge fund manager took over a retailer and ran it with a rigid focus on financial metrics, putting aside all that soft stuff about branding and marketing?

Take a look at Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and you have your answer. While macroeconomic trends haven't exactly been the company's friend, the stock has plunged from close to $200 per share in early 2007 to its current price of $66 per share. Just a few months ago it was trading in he mid-$20s.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) strong Q2 results beat expectations due to rising same-store sales.
• Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) Q3 earnings topped low expectations and revenue declined.
• Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) posted better-than-expected Q3 results but shares fell on weaker margins.
• Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) CEO said its new advertising efforts will boost sales over the long run.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) had a better-than-expected Q2 profit but same-store sales fell.
• BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) reported solid Q2 numbers and raised its full-year guidance.

This was one of those days that the overseas stock markets had a boost for the U.S. and the strength just stayed around. Despite a worse jobless claims figure, there was an actual positive report in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data and the Leading Indicators did not hurt the market either.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,348.54 +69.38 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,007.37 +10.91 (1.09%)
Nasdaq 1,989.22 +19.98 (1.01%)

Top 10 Analyst Calls

Slumping sales did in Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) in the second quarter, as the company posted a surprise loss of 17 cents per share (excluding items). The Street expected the company to report earnings of 38 cents per share. Why the staggering disparity?

One reason is that comparable-store sales dropped 8.6% (12.5% at Sears stores and 3.9% at Kmart). Another reason is what the company called "significant items," which include costs associated with store closings and severance (32 cents per share), domestic pension plan expenses (22 cents per share), mark-to-market losses on Sears Canada hedge transactions (8 cents per share), and a positive impact of a reversal of a $62-million reserve (29 cents per share). The store closings include charges that related to the decision to close 28 underperforming stores.

Yesterday it was lower, today it is higher -- the China effect on U.S. stock futures. Stocks are set to open higher Thursday morning after stocks Shanghai markets rebounded 4.5%, prompting a bounce in markets worldwide. Of course, higher oil and commodity prices helped sentiment as well, but an unexpected loss at retail giant Sears tested investors' confidence early on. Several economic indicators, including employment data, will be in focus this morning.

[Update: an unexpected rise in jobless claims, combined with Sears disappointment caused sentiment to sour somewhat. Stocks are headed for a flat to lower open.]

China shares bounced off a two-month closing low on Thursday after a sharp two-week selloff. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.5%. Investors reacted the People's Bank of China three-month bills auction as a sign of continued easy monetary policy. Encouraged by the happenings in China, world stock markets rose strongly Thursday.

JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), a mall retailer that competes with Macy's (NYSE: M), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), reported Q2 earnings on Friday. How were they? They were exactly how you'd expect them to be in this environment: not so good.

Net income did beat expectations, though. According to Bloomberg, the company made 0 cents per share, but that was enough to win the analyst game since the call was for a loss of a penny per share. Total sales, however, decreased almost 8%, and same-store sales plunged well over 9%.

Last week we looked at expectations for some retail earnings. More shopping mall favorites are reporting second-quarter results this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for significant earnings growth from some of them.

Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO), the teen-focused retailer spun off from Macy's (NYSE: M) in 1998, is expected to post a second-quarter profit that is 44.6% higher than a year ago, or $0.56 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 19.7% higher, or $451.3 million. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $2.98 per share (+25.8%) on $2.2 billion (+14.6%). Earnings of the New York-based company have matched estimates in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.9%, which is better than the retail industry average and rival Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF). Aeropostale's earnings multiple is 12x, and this debt-free company's cash flow from operations swung into positive territory in the first quarter. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy ARO; The Motley Fool identified it as a Wall Street favorite. Shares are down a couple of bucks from the 52-week high of $38.74 back in July, but are still 123.0% higher year to date.

Facebook is making the biggest ad splash since Google, according to an article in the Financial Times.

More than four-fifths of the largest advertisers in the United States have turned to the social networking platform to promote their wares -- after several years of fearing these types of communities. The lure of Facebook must have been too much to resist, with 340 million monthly unique visitors. Now, it's not unusual to see the likes of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Nike (NYSE: NKE), and AT&T (NYSE: ATT) advertising in this world.

Ad-driven social networking website Facebook is looking for new sources and revenue. The site is allowing outside vendors to open storefronts, which opens Facebook to transaction fees (though it is not be charging them yet) ... and companies on Facebook to the wallets of its users. 1-800-Flowers (NASD: FLWS) is the first to try this approach, having opened for business last week.

Over the next two months, another 20+ stores are expected according to Wade Gerten, CEO of Alvenda, the company that built the storefront application. They will include "very large general merchandise retailers, and very large electronics retailers," according to a report in the Financial Times.

Sears Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ: SHLD) storied and failed strategy in the last few years under the auspices of investor Eddie Lampert just keeps chugging along. Lampert thought he could turn Sears Holdings into an investment company that happened to have a retail operation attached. Didn't happen.

But, that does not mean Sears is giving up the ghost. The retailer everyone loves to dog as stodgy and out of touch is getting back into one business where it was decades ago: toys. That's right -- and just in time for the 2009 holiday season. Question: will anyone go out of their way to shop at Sears for toys? Is there a compelling reason with so many other quality choices?

I guess Kmart -- part of Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) -- has exhausted every other marketing idea it had for luring us back to the shopping aisles. How else to account for launching what must the earliest Christmas shopping campaign in history? The website for the chain now features a snowy village decked out in holiday cheer.

The banner reads "Take A Stroll Down Christmas Lane," and suggests that you can 'beat the Christmas rush" (ha!) by buying your stocking stuffers, gifts, and decorations now. Personally, I can't even predict who I'll still like well enough to give a gift to in six months. Stuff happens.