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Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is set to report earnings Monday, July 21, ahead of the opening bell. According to First Call, analysts are looking for a profit of 83 cents on revenue of $6.05 billion, an improvement over the 82 cents per share it reported in the same quarter last year, but a decline over the $6.1 billion in sales. Last quarter, the company beat per-share earnings estimates, but disappointed in sales.

Merck has suffered some bad news this quarter:

• The biggest blow was no doubt the FDA rejection of Merck's new cholesterol drug, Cordaptive. With so many drugs coming off patent, the drug company was relying on Cordaptive to contribute as much as $2 billion a year in sales.
• Also, prescriptions for Vytorin, co-marketed with Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP), kept falling. While this was to be expected following the January released study suggesting Vytorin and Zetia may not work well as older generic statins, the impact could be larger than expected.
  
• As for its cervical-cancer vaccine Gardasil, recently an analyst report from UBS questioned whether sales of the vaccine have met Wall Street estimates for the second quarter. UBS has proceeded to downgrade Merck to Neutral from Buy.
• Then, only Thursday, Merck announced a program to resolve and fund the $4.85 billion settlement stemming from the Vioxx 50,000 lawsuits. More than 97 percent of eligible claimants now have initiated enrollment in the program and will start receiving checks beginning late next month. In a way, though, this is a good news/bad news sort of thing. Investors like it when outstanding issues are resolved.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is reporting its fiscal third quarter financial results Monday, July 21, after the close. The question is not only what Apple will report, but also how the Street will react, and most important, is it a buy ahead of earnings?

In terms of numbers, according to Thompson Financial's survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. That's an 18.9% profit growth and a 37% sales growth.

Investors will be interested in the following:

iPhone sales numbers for Q3 may not interest investors that much, as the new 3G iPhone was released in fiscal Q4, and that is expected to be the main driver of iPhone sales going forward. The launch, despite its technical glitches was very successful, but investors might be concerned over Apple's ability to supply the demand. Already German and many U.S. stores have experienced shortages.

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), whose competitors include Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), isn't known for being a part of a healthy diet, no matter how much branding it's done in that area. However, it is known for delivering good earnings. That's why investors probably aren't too worried when it comes to Wednesday, the day that the fast-food behemoth is set to hand off a sack of quarterly numbers at the earnings-report drive-thru.

According to AOL Finance, McDonald's beat the street by a wide margin in the first quarter. The call was for about 70 cents per share which Mickey Dee's beat by a whopping 11 cents. The previous quarters weren't as impressive, but they were solid enough. McDonald's seems to have the game of at least matching expectations down pat, so I am confident that come Wednesday, the company's bottom line will be close to the 86 cents per share that Wall Street is looking for in the second quarter, according to Earnings.com.

If McDonald's makes the number, then it will represent growth of over 20%. Double-digit appreciation is a valuable commodity in this time period. I can't say, though, that McDonald's won't have its challenges cut out for it. After all, inflation is affecting everyone, and fuel prices theoretically could hamper the popularity of the company's valuable drive-thru asset (I used one last evening myself). But McDonald's has that famous dollar menu going for it, so even in tough times, fans of fatty foodstuffs can still afford the oily, heart-clogging grub.

We have heard a lot of news over the past 12 months about soaring fuel prices and the effect it is having on the major automakers. With record-high oil prices, and gasoline running about $4.10 a gallon, drivers are spending more and more money to fill up their tanks. One of the natural options for people has been to move towards less expensive, small, and simple cars.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) noticed that fuel-efficient vehicles will be more appealing to consumers, and announced last week plans to reduce production at its truck division (a bit late to join the party, but at least it's something for the struggling auto maker). Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is also slashing truck production during three months at its U.S. plants.

While It is true that most less expensive cars don't offer the same luxury when compared to sedans or SUVs, they come with a lot of options that can satisfy every individual need. Among the cheapest cars available, the article points out Honda's Fit ranked No. 11 at $13,950, a small car whose standard version comes with an adjustable steering column and four-speaker audio system, and is equipped with multiple airbags in the front, rear and side. Other vehicles that follow the same logic are the Chevrolet Aveo, ranked No. 2 at $11,460; the Toyota Yaris, third at $11,550, and the Kia Spectra, fifth at $12,895.

Classic blue-chip tech company IBM (NYSE: IBM), whose colleagues include Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), is due to report earnings on Thursday after the market closes up shop. What are investors looking for? Growth, of course. Should they expect it?

Well, according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings data, Wall Street is looking for IBM to deliver earnings per share around the $1.82 mark for the second quarter. Revenues should be near $25.9 billion. If Big Blue hits both of these numbers, it would show that the company is coming along fine and that the current level of the stock price is justified. Of course, Wall Street doesn't want IBM to merely hit those numbers. Oh no, that would be too easy. Wall Street wants IBM to beat those expectations. In terms of the bottom line, there is positive recent history for an earnings beat. The company handily beat estimates in the last two quarters, and met expectations in the two quarters previous to that time frame.

Will the company beat expectations? I think it will. The momentum seems to be favorable for such an outcome. In fact, in a relative sense, the stock isn't signaling a terrible report by any stretch of the imagination. The 52-week low is $97.04 and the 52-week high is $129.99. IBM closed up on Wednesday over 2% to a share price of $125.94. Doesn't sound like the market is worried, does it?

Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK), an online marketing service company, announced preliminary Q2 revenue between $163 and $164 million compared to the company's prior guidance range of $166 to $170 million. VCLK is recently trading down $3.02 to $10.75 in pre-open trading.

VCLK overall option implied volatility of 65 was above its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

It's funny how deadlines are sometimes so disconnected from what's really going on. Yes, eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), the online auctioneer, beat analyst estimates coming in with earnings of 43 cents per share, compared to expectations of 41 cents. Yes, its earnings growth was a not-too-shabby 22%. And yes, PayPal remained its bright spot, with a 33% revenue growth. But eBay shares are trading down 7% in after-hours due to a soft outlook.

Is it just the soft outlook though? Most companies give a lower guidance these days as the weakening U.S. economy is hurting business. I'm sure some of eBay's softer outlook could indeed be attributed to the weakening economic conditions, but once they start digging deeper into the metrics, many on the Street aren't happy. For example, the 20% revenue growth -- or more specifically, the 13% revenue growth at eBay's Marketplace -- doesn't reflect the actual business very well, as advertising and increasing take rates have been contributing more and more. In fact, Silicone Alley Insider has no problem proclaiming that eBay growth is grinding to a halt, saying that "Transaction revenues grew just 9% year-over-year, vs. 14% y/y growth last quarter and 23% y/y growth during Q2 2007."

Then we have gross merchandise volume, or GMV, where analysts had been expecting a 12% growth. Not only did eBay post only an 8% year-over-year growth, but it posted a 2% decline sequentially. Another disappointment was the new listings numbers, which totaled 666.9 million, up 19% year-over-year and 3% sequentially.

Marketplace -- that's where the problems lie, and that's where investors would like to see improvements most; Skype and PayPal are growing well. Thing is, Marketplace isn't such a market place anymore. I'm not even sure how eBay can fix that. The internet and its users have evolved and I don't know that eBay fits the bill anymore. Just like Yahoo!, eBay is a mature company in the lifespan of the internet, and both have their glory days behind them. I wouldn't touch eBay stock as I don't see it going anywhere with its current business model.

OPEC again lowered its forecast for 2008 global oil demand growth, adding that the economic slowdown affecting the United States and other industrialized nations is likely to lower demand growth in 2009 as well, the group announced (pdf).

OPEC lowered its 2008 forecast to 1.20% global oil demand growth, down from 1.28%. It was OPEC's fourth downward revision for oil demand this year. The new price structure and slower global economy "have helped dampen oil demand growth in many regions," the cartel said in its July report.

OPEC, which accounts for about 40% of the global oil supply, now expects 2008 demand to rise by 1.03 million barrels per day, or 70,000 barrels per day less than the group's previous forecast.

On Tuesday, oil plunged $6.44 to $138.74 per barrel -- its biggest decline, in percentage terms, since March 2008 -- following Tuesday morning testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, during which the Fed chair said credit market write-downs were likely to slow the already anemic U.S. economy even more, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks OPEC's revised forecast is likely to represent another data point the oil bears will like.

Oil price key: Emerging markets

Shares of eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) are up about 2% today, ahead of the announcement of its quarterly financial results after the close. What to expect when the online auction site reports?

Well, if you're interested in numbers, eBay indicated that second-quarter earnings will be between 30 and 32 cents per share, or between 39 and 41 cents per share on an adjusted basis. The company also predicted revenue of $2.1 to $2.15 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect eBay to be pretty much in-line with estimates, or just slightly better, and post adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share on revenue of $2.17 billion.

According to Jefferies & Co., eBay experiences "strong Marketplaces listings growth and ongoing strength in payments and non-gross merchandise value, or GMV, businesses." On Tuesday, RBC Capital Markets maintained its Sector Perform rating on eBay, but reduced the target price from $40 to $35 due to "continued transition of the company's platform and low visibility into the core marketplaces platform," and due to some misgivings about month-to-month worsening trends. However, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Banc of America actually raised estimates recently.

Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) shares are falling today after the company lowered its second-quarter and full-year outlook well below analysts' expectations yesterday evening. The company said inflation costs would reach $900 million, double the company's original estimate. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on KMB.

After hitting a one-year high of $71.16 in October, the stock has hit a new one-year low of $50.42 today. This morning, KMB opened at $54.25. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.42 and a high of $57.68. As of 12:50, KMB is trading at $55.87, down $2.93 (-5.0%). The chart for KMB looks neutral and slightly improving while S&P gives KMB a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.9% return in three months as long as KMB is below $60 at October expiration. Kimberly-Clark would have to rise by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) wants to calm the nerves of jittery Wall Street. According to this item, the Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) warning has spooked investors worried about inflation (I'm one of them). So, P&G wanted to let everyone know that things will be all right at the maker of Ivory soap and Pringles potato chips (or is that crisps?).

P&G is confident that it can deliver top-line growth of between 8% and 10% when it next reports. Also, management believes that earnings per share will still be somewhere between $0.76 and $0.78. You know it's a bad market when an announcement indicating that the status quo will merely be maintained as opposed to being exceeded is enough to keep a stock slightly in the green by a few pennies, as opposed to down nearly 5% (which is how the stocks of P&G and Kimberly-Clark are trading, respectively, as of this writing).

Of course, the fact that P&G came out and supported its guidance doesn't mean that inflation shouldn't be feared. We're still in bad shape in this regard, the bears haven't gone away, and I don't think either P&G or Kimberly-Clark are trading buys. I like both for the longer-term, and in terms of Kimberly-Clark, the yield is attractive. However, in terms of buy-and-hold-and-forget, you can't beat the safe reliability of P&G, whose product portfolio is one of the best out there in the consumer sector. I would imagine that P&G's brand equity is helping it navigate this vicious commodity storm, but don't think it can't weaken in coming quarters.

Disclosure: I don't own any stock mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Oil plunged more than $8 to about $136 Tuesday at mid-day after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's indicated the risks to U.S. growth have increased as a result of credit market losses, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Oil fell $9.26 to $135.92 per barrel before recovery slightly. Oil hit a record of $147.27 per barrel on July 11.

The other major energy commodities, likewise, plummeted on the news. Heating oil plunged almost 15 cents to $3.91 per gallon, unleaded gasoline sank almost 17 cents to $3.39 per gallon, and natural gas plunged 44 cents to $11.51 per million BTUs.

"Oil in free-fall"

Energy trader Jim Dietz said "a mini selling frenzy" hit the oil market after Bernanke indicated the U.S. economy was likely to slow further.

"We did have some support for an oil-long trade earlier as an investment when few other investments are working, but that sentiment was quickly wiped out by Bernanke's comments," Dietz said. "We had oil in free-fall for about an hour. The market put 'two and two together.' We had the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout news yesterday [Monday] and Bernanke's bearish comments today. That led a lot of people to conclude we're going to see a slowdown in oil demand growth, which means lower prices."

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro Tuesday morning as traders calculated that U.S. credit market losses will further hurt U.S. economic growth.

The dollar weakened about 1.25 cents to $1.6048 versus the euro before regaining some ground to $1.5995. The dollar also fell one cent versus the British pound to $2.0057 and 1.85 yen to 104.20 versus Japan's yen.

Currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Tuesday the equation is a basic one: with more dollars in supply, each dollar is worth less.

"The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assistance packages will require more federal spending or federal support though guarantees. That action, plus FDIC takeover of problem banks means more federal outlays, which weakens the value of the dollar," Resnick said. "We've been in a period of increasing federal outlays for the past five years, although I don't think anyone in 2003 anticipated that federal spending would increase to this degree."

There were high hopes that Americans would run out and spend their tax rebate checks in a hurry, and that this would be just what the economy needed to get back on track. Well, it does seem that the checks were spent, but as weaker than expected June retail figures come in, it seems that it was a weak fix to a much bigger problem.

The program worked out pretty well in May, as retail sales grew 0.8% during the month, but we were sent back to reality today as June's figures showed that retails sales in the month grew at a measly 0.1%. This was lower than the 0.4% that Wall Street analysts were expecting. Since these figures typically get re-adjusted, it is not out of the question to assume that this figure could be even lower. May, for example, was originally reported to have had an increase of 1.0%, but that was lowered to 0.8%.

Once again, we have to assume that it is record high gasoline prices that are weighing on consumer's minds, as the biggest declines came in automobiles, furniture, electronics and building materials. Auto sales of course were the biggest drag on the retail numbers, and if you look at the figures while ignoring auto sales, then retail would have actually risen by 0.8%, but that is still under the 1.0% that analysts were predicting.

Investors have watched the precipitous fall in the U.S. dollar over the past few years with trepidation. Investors in Israeli stocks trading in the U.S. have witnessed the once-lowly shekel dominate the dollar (and most other global currencies) over the past two years. It looks, at least from some uber-investors' perspectives, that the dollar may be set to reverse -- a boon for those companies with significant sales in the U.S.

Bloomberg has an article out this morning saying that bond guru, Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, the $129 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, has turned negative on the euro for the first time since its inception in 1999. According to the article, Gross's firm, Pimco, believes that according to purchasing power parity, a measure used to account for differences in exchange rates across countries, the euro is overvalued by 30%.

And Gross isn't the only one who is concerned that Europe may suffer a bigger slowdown than the U.S. in a world confronted with slowing growth and financial snafus. The same Bloomberg article says that according to a recent poll conducted by Bloomberg of global strategists, many think that the euro has seen its day and that the dollar is poised for a rally (hard to believe in the face of Fannie Mae and IndyMac).

Europe's Trichet-led Central Bank has signaled that it may be done raising rates. In fact, given the choice between fighting inflation and re-energizing a sputtering economy, some are betting that the ECB may need to actually lower rates. With a Fed-led plan to bailout the U.S. banking system and the bottoming out of the dollar, it looks like Gross and Co. are betting against the euro for years to come.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.