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The 'big picture' of our economy

In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.

Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.

Continue reading The 'big picture' of our economy

Consumers take out their frustrations at auto shows

The last year has definitely been a rocky one for the auto industry, with American icons General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler both receiving billions of dollars from Washington in hopes of avoiding bankruptcy. While a lot of the country feels as though it is important to try to save the auto companies, not everyone is so happy with the recent events, and have been taking out their frustrations at recent auto shows.

The first sign that things are not quite the same as before can be noticed on the auto show floors. Typically in the past, the major auto makers spared no expense at setting up elaborate displays to lure in people to check out their most recent designs. This is not the case anymore for some of the industry's major players.

Continue reading Consumers take out their frustrations at auto shows

Make bailed out companies hold meetings in Detroit!

I've recently been giving some thought to how we can help Detroit get out of its rut.

And what a rut it is: The average home price is hovering around $6,000 and vacancy rates are soaring as everyone who can find somewhere else to go flees Detroit. I suggested making Detroit into a retirement community, but now I have a better idea: Make AIG (NYSE: AIG), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) executives have their little conventions there.

Continue reading Make bailed out companies hold meetings in Detroit!

The week in preview: Bernanke, earnings winners, and Raymond James conference

After testifying before a Senate committee about AIG (NYSE: AIG) last week, the Fed's Ben Bernanke participates in a Council of Foreign Relations event Monday evening.

Economic data due to be released this week include wholesale trade and job vacancies for January on Tuesday morning, the U.S. Treasury budget for February on Wednesday, retail sales for February and business inventories for January on Thursday morning, and the U.S. trade balance for January on Friday morning.

Continue reading The week in preview: Bernanke, earnings winners, and Raymond James conference

Will Europe stay united?

The European Union (EU) has always been a complex structure, but now it is becoming more so. Economic activity varies widely from country to country. For example, the more established economies of Germany, France and Italy are the strongest at this moment with the economies that were part of the Soviet Union, such as Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic are much weaker. The EU discussed this matter recently and agreed to help Eastern European countries on a country by country basis.

Continue reading Will Europe stay united?

Mr. Obama, please make these reforms for Wall Street

Wall Street is scared to death of reform. After all, it had a free for all these many years. Wall Streeters speculated and gambled recklessly and have brought the world to ruin.

Now President Obama and world leaders are not going to take it any more. It is time to change the "rules of the road," as Mr. Obama said.

Mr. Obama convened a high level White House meeting of Democratic and Republican lawmakers, who said they would work with the administration to craft new legislation in a few weeks.

Continue reading Mr. Obama, please make these reforms for Wall Street

Microsoft & Google: Battle in the clouds

A battle royal is shaping up in the world of cloud computing between long-standing dominant software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its biggest threat of the past few years, internet runaway Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

BusinessWeek is reporting that Microsoft plans to build 20 new data centers over the next few years to serve corporations large and small which would prefer to store their data in a secure environment and be able to access it over the internet. Google started along the same path several years ago with the same goal.

The data centers are likely to cost as much as a billion dollars each. Companies opting to use this type of service will be delegating the acquisition, maintenance, and security required to store large amounts of data while preserving capital for core business activities.

One novel approach in Microsoft's newest facility is to fill the 700,000 square-foot floor with prepackaged shipping containers instead of acres of racks containing servers. Each of the containers can hold 2,500 servers, and the floor can hold up to 224 containers. That's a potential maximum of 560,000 servers.

Continue reading Microsoft & Google: Battle in the clouds

Hasbro attempts to put best foot forward on analysts' call

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) management recently spoke to analysts at its Investor Day conference. Here's the transcript. We all know the deal about these conferences: companies want to put their best foot forward and convince Wall Street that, if things are going good they are about to get even better, or, if things are going bad they won't be as bad as people thought and they will be improving either soon or on a long-term basis. You can bet that it was the latter tone taken by Team Hasbro at the event. In fact, CEO Brian Goldner said something which I thought was quite amazing: did you know that there actually will be a Christmas this year?

Frankly, I had my doubts. Of course, even though there will be a Christmas, and even though Santa will be delivering a lot of toys to kids this holiday season, it's not going to be a pleasant one for toy manufacturers. We're in a bad recession, folks, which is about to wreak psychological havoc on even the strongest consumer mind. Hasbro wants investors to know that parents will buy the stuff on their children's lists. Hasbro is further betting that the company's products will be on a lot of those lists.

The brand equity inherent in its portfolio was mentioned as a particular strength, one that will help keep margins strong and defend the company against competition not only from the likes of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) but also from companies that put out more generic playthings. Management also mentioned that Hasbro is in a position of financial strength because of its cash flow, and that it remains confident that revenue expansion can go beyond increases in costs and expenses.

Continue reading Hasbro attempts to put best foot forward on analysts' call

Retail sales, job vacancies, consumer sentiment on this week's schedule

Any enthusiasm in the market over last week's presidential election appeared to have been quickly overwhelmed by such economic data as unemployment numbers and the dismal quarterly reports of the big automakers. Here's a look at what's on the economic calendar for the week of November 10, 2008.

For expectations for this some of this coming week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Macy's, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, JCPenney, and Kohl's.

Time Warner Q3 2008 earnings transcript


Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)
Q3 2008 Earnings Conference Call
November 5, 2008 10:30 AM ET


Management Summary

Operator

Welcome to the Time Warner third quarter 2008 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the call over to Mr. Doug Shapiro, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Douglas Shapiro – Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Shirley. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Time Warner's 2008 third quarter earnings conference call. This morning we issued two press releases: one detailing our results for the third quarter and the other updating our 2008 business outlook.

Before we begin, there are two things I need to cover. First, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Schedules setting out reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earning release or trending schedules. These reconciliations are available on our website at timewarner.com/investors. A reconciliation of our expected future financial performance is also included in the business outlook release that is available on our website.

Continue reading Time Warner Q3 2008 earnings transcript

Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?

Amidst all of the talk of hockey moms, jabs at Democrat Barack Obama, and media bashing, there was not much discussion of the weak economy at this week's Republican National Convention.

In fact, the Republican gathering was notably short on talk of the main issue on the minds of voters. Sure, there was "drill baby drill," but is that really an economic policy? Can Americans drill their way out of the credit crisis? Can we drill our way out of the housing slump? Can we drill our way to prosperity?

No less of a flaming liberal than CNBC's Larry Kudlow took note.

"As we head into the closing night in St. Paul, there has so far been no reference to the weak economy," Kudlow said on the network's blog before John McCain's acceptance speech last night. "There has been no economic-recovery message and no growth message."

Interestingly, the Republican platform contained language inserted by economic conservatives rejecting the Bush administration's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., and possible bailouts of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), according to Bloomberg News. The document purposely did not mention the credit crunch because delegates were afraid that any solution that they would offer might make things worse, Bloomberg says. The GOP's embrace of free trade may sell well on Wall Street, but it won't win votes on Main Street where workers are fearful of their jobs being shipped to lower-cost countries overseas.

No wonder the GOP did not say much on the economy.

Most Americans are suffering because of high gas prices, a volatile stock market and plunging home prices. Though technically the economy may be strong and may not even be in a recession, most people and businesses believe they are worse off than they were a year ago.

Continue reading Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?

Obama vs. O'Reilly should be a ratings blockbuster for Fox

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is about to enter the "No Spin Zone."

The Illinois senator is due to be interviewed by Fox News' Bill O'Reilly, host of the "The O'Reilly Factor," on Thursday, the final night of The Republican National Convention, according to TVNewser.com. I am sure executives at Fox parent company News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) were high-fiving each other when that interview was secured. The clash between the suave Obama and the bellicose O'Reilly will make for interesting television. It will be like a car accident on the highway that people can't help themselves from gawking at.

Maybe Obama views it as a chance to show his supporters that he is not afraid of O'Reilly, who is a pussy cat compared with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. It's also quite a contrast to the strategy of Republican John McCain, who is keeping the media at an arm's length. His campaign even canceled an interview the candidate had scheduled with CNN's Larry King because it did not like the tough questions anchor Campbell Brown asked its spokesman about the qualifiicaitons of his running-mate Sarah Palin.

Both the Democratic and Republican conventions have been a dream come true for the cable news channels. More people tuned into CNN, which is owned by Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), for Obama's acceptance than for Fox, MSNBC and the broadcast networks. The address got more viewers than the American Idol final, the Oscars, or the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.

Fox, though, continues to attract more viewers overall, especially during the Republican get-together in St. Paul. General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) MSNBC is gaining viewers too, though some may be curious to see if its feuding on-air personalities will break into a fist fight. All three of the cable news networks are raking in major bucks from those annoying 30-second TV spots that are an unfortunate part of American political life.

A winner has already emerged from the Obama-O'Reilly confrontation before a single punch has been thrown: News Corp. head Rupert Murdoch. The media baron lusts for the power to set the nation's political agenda. Come Thursday night, that's exactly what he will be able to do.

McCain's lower taxes policy or Obama's handout program?

Right here, in my hometown of Minneapolis-St.Paul, the Republican National Convention is set to begin. The hotels, restaurants and bars are abuzz and a table for four is a tough reservation to secure!

The convention has been tempered down as the nation watched Hurricane Gustav, the first and most important priority. As the hurricane dwindles into just a huge rain storm, the convention can resume its course.

They say that once the conventions are finished, the nation truly focuses in on the presidential election. The 15% or so who watch the primaries in earnest will be joined by the other 85% who have tuned out. Well, now it's time to tune in. Both McCain and Obama have interesting and fascinating backgrounds; both have come such different paths to their respective party's nominations.

Many said Obama is inexperienced, until his campaign totally outmaneuvered the Clinton machine -- so much for inexperience. Senator Joe Biden brings 36 years of Washington experience to the ticket, although I'm not sure if that's really relevant in this election.

McCain electrified the Republican base by naming Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Her experience is also limited, although she does have executive experience, far more than Biden, Obama and McCain combined! The addition of Governor Palin has, at least locally here in Convention City, mobilized a great number of voters who were warm, maybe lukewarm, to Senator McCain. Many in Minnesota thought our governor, Tim Pawlenty, would grace the ticket with McCain. Politics makes for strange bedfellows though.

Continue reading McCain's lower taxes policy or Obama's handout program?

Time Warner Q2 2008 earnings transcript

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX)
Q2 2008 Earnings Conference Call
August 6, 2008 10:30 AM ET

Management Summary

Operator

Welcome to the Time Warner second quarter 2008 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the call over to Doug Shapiro, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir, you may begin.

Doug Shapiro, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Time Warner's 2008 second quarter earnings conference call. This morning we issued two press releases: one detailing our results for the second quarter; and the other reaffirming our 2008 business outlook.

Before we begin, there are a few items I need to cover. First, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Schedules setting out reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release or trending schedules. These reconciliations are available on our web site at timewarner.com/investors. A reconciliation of our expected future financial performance is also included in the business outlook release that is available on our web site.

Continue reading Time Warner Q2 2008 earnings transcript

Do we need a second economic stimulus bill?

Congressional Democrats, including Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va, are pushing for the enactment of a second economic stimulus bill worth $24 billion, including a $6 billion lifeline for the beleaguered auto industry. Odds of it passing in a presidential election year are slim to none.

Democrats, though, are giving the people what they want. Regardless of whether it's a good idea or not, it's fantastic politics. Democrats can prove to voters, who are fed up with the lousy economy, that they "feel their pain," leaving aside the debate of whether it's needed.

That explains why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., says that the second stimulus bill will need to have bipartisan support -- as the first one got -- because it is vital for the economy. Like the first economic stimulus plan, Byrd's bill will be temporary, targeted and provide disaster relief, according to CQ Politics.com.

"The Speaker earlier had vowed to enact a second measure, totaling at least $50 billion, before Congress leaves this year," the website says. "But the president and congressional Republicans have been less enthusiastic about the idea, repeatedly arguing that lawmakers should wait to assess the impact of the tax rebates and other incentives enacted in February."

Continue reading Do we need a second economic stimulus bill?

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:09 PM

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