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US refineries: More diesel, less gas

Refineries in the U.S. are producing more diesel fuel and less gasoline. The reason is simple and logical. They make more money on diesel.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The global hunger for diesel, coupled with tight refining capacity, has made diesel one of the few bright spots in the refining business." Demand in developing countries, where diesel fuel is widely used, gives the refiners a set of large markets.

Refiners believe that falling demand for gas due to a poor economy means that they can cut back gas production. There is something wrong with that reasoning because gas has moved to $4 a gallon. Refiners come back with the fact that the price of diesel is up even more.

The perverse thinking about how to divide gas and diesel production almost certainly argues for one conclusion: gas prices are going higher if supply is dropping.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

AMR missed a few inspections

AMR (NYSE: AMR) may have skipped key inspections of some of its planes to keep them in service. According to The Wall Street Journal, "American made the procedural changes and revised its maintenance manual in an effort to prevent planes from being pulled out of service." The inspections were meant to look over planes that may have been hit by lightning.

American's defense for skipping the procedures is that, if a pilot reported that his plane was hit by lightning, mechanics will look into it. What if the pilot is napping? Further, the airline says no plane has crashed from a lightning strike in over 30 years. How convenient.

The airlines have one, weak reason for cutting back on inspections. They cannot afford them. The federal government has to deal with the fact that some carriers are near bankruptcy because of high fuel prices. The FAA may have to supply financial support for extra work by mechanics, or watch the industry fall apart.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the editor of Ten Stocks Under $10.

Pre-market movers (HOKU) (KONG)

Hoku Scientific (NASDAQ:HOKU) is trading up 14% on news that one of its utilities projects has been approved.

Lundin Mining (NYSE:LMC) is up almost 7% on a strong first quarter.

KongZong (NASDAQ:KONG) is down about 15% on poor earnings.

Ascent Solar (NASDAQ:ASTI) is down over 4% on dilution concerns from an offering of new shares.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newletter.

Early analyt calls (JCP) (COST) (SNDK)

Goldman Sachs cut the ratings on J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWM) from "buy" to "neutral" due to the rising price of oil, according to MarketWatch.

Morgan Stanley began CostCo (NASDAQ:COST) at "equal weight" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that JPM downgraded Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) from "market perform" from "underperform".

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Yahoo! (YHOO) accuses Icahn of missing the point

What a fabulous defense. The Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) board has written Carl Icahn about his plan to run his own slate of directors in a proxy war. The portal's governing body reasons that because Icahn was not in any of its meetings and did not attend negotiations with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) that the billionaire can't understand why Yahoo! is worth more than $33 a share.

In a letter run in The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo! writes that the company's board "remains the best and most qualified group to maximize value for all Yahoo! stockholders."

The reasoning by the board is flawed to the bone. Whether Icahn or any other shareholder attended meetings is beside the question. Yahoo!'s value in the market before the Microsoft bid was $19. Wall Street placed that value on the company because it had repeatedly put out disappointing results. The bad numbers cost former CEO Terry Semel his job. Yahoo! has less than 25% of the US search market, and that number is falling. To argue that the board understands why the company is worth $37 a share is both arrogant and has no basis in fact.

The other part of the Yahoo! reasoning is based on the idea that management's projections for the next three years create a value for the company well beyond its current share price. This does not take into account that no one believes that Yahoo! can hit the numbers. The Paulson hedge fund, one of the largest shareholders in the portal company, has already said it will back the Icahn bid. So have other owners of the company's stock.

Yahoo!'s board cannot simply dismiss arguments about the value of the company because it has talked in private and come up with higher numbers. "If wishes were horses, all the beggars would ride."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

RIM's (RIMM) iPhone killer no threat to Apple (AAPL)

Companies from Nokia (NYSE:NOK) to Samsung are trying to create a product to compete with the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. Now RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) will join the group.

RIM will come out with a touchscreen version of its Blackberry, probably in the third quarter. The decision is based on a false premise, which is that people want to buy an "iPhone" from someone other than Apple.

According to The Wall Street Journal "Dubbed the Thunder, the new BlackBerry is among RIM's strongest moves so far to appeal to the increasing number of consumers opting for multimedia phones."

The market has heard this song before. Over a year ago, both Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) came to market with competition for the iPod. Neither made any progress.

As infantile as the reasoning may seem, Apple built a nearly perfect product, which has been confirmed by strong demand , and plans to improve on it with features like 3G capability. Competition cannot replace what the customer views as irreplaceable.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

The Toyota (TM) Prius turns one million

All of those green people in all of those green cars. The Toyota (NYSE: TM) Prius was a gamble when the auto company first designed and built it. The price was more than its "all gas" counterparts because the electric component of the engine was expensive to build. The Japanese firm had to bet that buyers would want to save the environment by purchasing an automobile aimed at cutting emissions.

All of that planning by Toyota worked. The Prius has now sold one million units worldwide. Reuters says that the car company said "Toyota believes that Prius vehicles worldwide have contributed to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by producing approximately 4.5 million tonnes less CO2 when compared with gasoline-powered vehicles in the same class and of similar size and driving performance."

And who is to say that the calculation is wrong, at least by much.

Toyota has once again put its competition in a situation where they have to catch up. When the company began to produce almost flawless cars 20 years ago, Detroit and Europe had to up their quality to stay in the game. Now they will need to aggressively follow Toyota into the hybrid market.

Being first to market sometimes has its advantages.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

Countrywide (CFC) can't get off the hook

Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) directors and executives never did anything wrong? How can people tell? Because they say so.

The judge in a suit against the big mortgage company is not buying it. He wants a trial against the firm and its bosses to continue. According to The New York Times, the court ruled that management "must answer shareholder accusations of insider trading and an overall failure to monitor lending practices that led to the company's collapse."

The charges are serious enough to put some of the Countrywide people in jail, but are they important enough to get Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to back away from its purchase of the company?

The case looks pretty bad for the mortgage company, at least on the face of it. Officers and directors sold $850 million worth of shares between 2004 and 2007. Toward the end of that period, the company was buying back $2.4 billion in stock, which would tend to keep the price up.

Almost no one would be unhappy to see some of the company's management behind bars. Countrywide issued huge numbers of mortgages to subprime borrowers, which reset at higher prices after the first few years. The homeowners could not make payments and often faced foreclosures. Countrywide got paid for each one of those, a clear reason it might have been aggressive in getting in more customers.

Countrywide executives cannot pay all of those people back, but they can make them license plates from inside a big federal prison.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

IAC/Interactive (IACI) gets into the dictionary business

IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI) needs to build up its little Ask.com franchise before it is spun out in a breakup of the parent company. Ask.com is an "also ran" in the search engine fight which includes Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

In an attempt to turn a loser into a contender, IACI is buying Lexico, which owns Dictionary.com, Thesaurus.com and Reference.com. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Lexico sites drew about 15.6 million unique U.S. visitors in March, according to comScore Inc., compared with 55.4 million for Ask and an array of affiliated sites."

Even if the price of the new addition is low, the Lexico sites are not likely to do much good for the Ask.com franchise. It has already fallen so far behind the three search leaders that it almost certainly cannot catch up. Internet users have already set their preference in this part of the online market. Owning a dictionary site is not going to help that.

IACI's Ask.com can't come from behind and buying additional reference sites is not going to change that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Pre-market movers (CBS) (CNET) (BCS)

CNET (NASDAQ:CNET) is up over 45% on news of a buy-out from CBS (NYSE:CBS).

Sina (NASDAQ:SINA) is up about 10% on an analyst upgrade.

Barclays (NYSE:BCS) is off 3% on weak earnings and high write-offs.

Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP) is off 8% over worries about the impact of the earthquake in China on its business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of Ten Stocks Under $10.

CBS to buy CNET: Weird deal of the year

CBS (NYSE: CBS), a television network, is buying CNET (NASDAQ: CNET), a collection of technology websites. Other than the fact that the deal makes no sense, it is perfect.

CBS is even paying a premium for the privilege of owning a company that no one else seemed to want. Jana Partners and other activist investors have been pushing for a sale or break-up of CNET, but the news must be beyond the wildest dreams. CNET is up almost 50% on word that CBS will pay $11.50 for a stock which was trading at under $8.

Management's case for the buy-out is that "The acquisition will make CBS one of the 10 most popular Internet companies in the United States, with a combined 54 million unique users per month, and approximately 200 million users worldwide," according to the company.

However, CNET has had trouble making money on its large audience of internet users, to some extent because those readers are spending time with online tech blogs. The firm does have a large software download business, but quarterly statements do not indicate that it is a large or profitable business.

Perhaps no one will ever understand the CBS motives. The company is controlled by Sumner Redstone, who has done odd things before.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Merrill Lynch tells analysts in increase 'sell' ratings

Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is worried that its analysts are going too easy on the companies that they cover. Perhaps they have become too friendly with managements or spent too many nights out on the town with executives trying to get clues about how things are going.

To counter any of that in addition to balancing bad analysis by its researchers, Merrill is insisting that each researcher rate 20% of the stocks in his coverage universe as "sell", or as the brokerage calls it "underperform".

Perhaps Merrill does not trust its army of analysts or at least it sounds that way. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Merrill also will require analysts to publish the reason for their recommendation and a price target for every stock." It goes without saying that a stock researcher who does not do that is not much of a stock researcher at all.

The move by Merrill is a tacit admission that its analysts have been giving bad advice to clients. Why change a system which is based on fair and reasonable ratings?

The only reason for the alteration is that clients have been misled.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of Ten Stocks Under $10.

Early analyst calls (SINA) (TIVO) (PALM)

UBS cut Palm (NASDSAQ:PALM) from "neutral" to "sell", according to MarketWatch.

Citigroup upgraded Sina (NASDAQ:SINA) from "hold" to "buy" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Tivo (NASDAQ:TIVO) was upgraded to "market perform" from "underperform" by Friedman Billings.

First Analysis Securities downgraded Cbiz (NYSE:CBZ) to "equal weight" from "overweight" according to the AP.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Wal-Mart (WMT): No dangerous toys here

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) does not want to be known as a place where there are products that could hurt little kids. It is bad for public relations and thus bad for business. So the world's largest retailer is going to set standards for toys that are much tougher that those of the U.S. government.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Wal-Mart does not just want the toys to be manufactured more safely. The paper writes, "The initiative also encourages suppliers to mark children's products with 'traceability information', including the factory in which the goods were made. About 80% of the toys sold in the U.S., including those marketed by U.S.-based toy makers, are manufactured in China."

Wal-Mart is a little late to the party. The threat of lead and other toxins has been causing trouble for retailers for over a year. Several of the company's competitors already have similar programs in place. And Wal-Mart sources a lot of inventory in China, so it may not want to be seen as leading the pack in a public relations war with the People's Republic.

The news also begs the question of why Wal-Mart was not inspecting the toys on its own. Of course, that would be expensive.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Merrill: Those rebate checks won't help

Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) says that the rebate checks that are about to hit those tens of millions of taxpayers won't help the economy avoid a recession. That makes sense. Most of the money will have to go to pay for gas.

According to Reuters, Merrill claims "The U.S. economy is in a recession and stimulus from a government tax rebate later this quarter will only temporarily stem a fall in consumer spending." Well said.

When the economic stimulus package was first conceived, it might have worked. But, things have changed. A lot.

Most of the money handed out by the government is likely to be spent on high food and fuel prices. That will hardly be an incentive for people to buy a new Cadillac or build a swimming pool. A taxpayer getting a check for $600 could use all of that on gasoline between now and the end of the year.

Another factor in the Merrill formula is that house prices may fall another 15% to 20% before reaching a bottom. People may simply put the money in their mattresses to make mortgage payments.

The rebate checks are good for keeping people's heads above water, but they are unlikely to increase consumer spending.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

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Last updated: May 17, 2008: 03:56 AM

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