Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been on a roll this quarter. Up almost $30 since its July peak, the company has seen continuing enthusiasm about its iPhone release, with international launches in France, England, and Germany adding to the excitement. New iPods and the iPod Touch also helped keep Apple in the public eye.
However right after the earnings release last July, and iPhone enthusiasm, the stock suffered a strong dip due to fears about iPhone sales. That seems to have ameliorated, but investors do have to watch out for Apple investors who are really iPhone or iPod investors. Investors who are buying into the excitement, but not the fundamentals of the company, and who don't understand the full range of Apple services. Whenever negative iPod or iPhone news comes out, they have a tendency to run from the stock. Apple will have to demonstrate iPhone sales in line with its projections, and prove that iPods are not being hurt by iPhone sales to reassure jittery fair weather investors.
Last quarter Apple forecast earnings of 65 cents a share, or some $5.7 billion, for this upcoming fourth quarter. This is not as rosy as the third quarter: Apple is expecting back to school promotions and parts costs to cut into it's profit. However Apple has also beat its expectations for quite a few quarters running now.
As our sister site, The Unofficial Apple Weblog, points out, Apple is gaining marketshare, with somewhere between 6.3 or 8.1% of the market depending on who's surveying, making it the #3 computer company in the US. With solid sales of its computers, and now iPods and iPhones boosting the bottom line and attention, this fourth quarter is probably going to be another solid one for Apple. Analysts are estimating more than Apple's predicted 65 cents a share quarter, and consensus seems to be upwards of 80 cents a share.
But we'll only know for sure when we tune in on Monday to hear what Apple has to say with its latest earnings report. You can also tune in here at Bloggingstocks.com, where we'll be liveblogging the earnings report.
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Visit Bloggingstocks.com liveblog of the earnings call here.
Apple quarterly earnings preview
Posted Oct 18th 2007 5:32PM by Tobias Buckell
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Competitive Strategy, Apple Inc (AAPL)
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-19-2007 @ 12:18AM
Beltway Greg said...
I don't think I need to reinterate my bullish stance on Apple as I was the first to call for a share price of $200 within a year ending on June of 09. I figured a price of about $175.00 by Xmas and its there and it isn't even the end of Oct. What to do? Where to go? Next Monday means everything for the near and mid-term. It's a guessing game. I've got to believe that Apple does something ridiculous like $1.05/share. The figure of 8% of computer sales is astounding without any of the additional products added. Last week I went into a couple of stores and noticed something that got my attention. Old people? What you say? Yes, grannies and grandpas pricing macs and not for the kids but for themselves. Also, options for Jan. 08 calls at $250 are receiving a substantial bit of action. Apple could be at $200 by the end of next week. Also, for anyone playing along with my posts I recommended APH to Sheldon L. a couple of months ago and it moved nicely too. The American dollar is toast. Basically, I think we're witnessing the democratization of capitalism with an immense flight to quality. If Apple proves itself worthy it will be rewarded. Gut feeling? Apple closes at $187.33 next Friday the 26th.
Strap yourself in it's going to be a bumpy ride cause the recession and heaven are just a sin away.
Beltway Greg
"I'm not sure Hank done it this a way."
10-19-2007 @ 9:10AM
Beltway Greg said...
Meant June of 08.
BG.
10-20-2007 @ 2:12PM
Cville pk said...
Unless we get quite a surprise, aapl's trajectory to 300+ over the next 2 years is unstoppable.
They have enormous advantages for their growing or existing dominance in
- pocket media and PCs
- secure, reliable, elegant desktops and home media
- user empowering phone technology
Aapl walks the walk, others talk the talk. We are looking at the Michael Jordan of consumer and computer tech.
Disclosure: long aapl (of course!)