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Apple: Any more doubters?

Well, by now you have probably read or heard about Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) spectacular June quarter. Apple crushed Wall Street expectations by $0.20, reporting earnings per share of $0.92 on revenues of $5.41 billion. The numbers were up dramatically from last year's similar quarter of $4.37 billion of revenues and earnings per share of $0.54. I wrote a couple of days ago that Apple has doubled in price these past 12 months and will double again over the next three years if not sooner.

The case is now more compelling than ever.

The great news about Apple's June quarter was summarized in one sentence by CEO Steve Jobs: "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our one-millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales -- and our new product pipeline is very strong." That's the story in a nutshell.

Yesterday (Tuesday) all the worry-warts were panicking because AT&T reported that they activated "only" 146,000 iPhones in its first 30 hours of selling. The iPhone became available the evening of June 29th and the quarter ended June 30th -- 30 lousy hours of activation time for AT&T. Apple stock fell from $145+ to $137 on this "horrible" news. What a joke. Remember it took Apple nearly two years to sell its one-millionth iPod unit -- two years. The iPhone will sell at least 10 million units in its first 6 quarters of availability. That's conservative, very conservative.

I have written before and will reiterate that the story for Apple for the March, June and ensuing September quarter is the Mac. Apple sold 1.7 million Mac's this past June quarter, that's up 32% over last year. The momentum in the Mac product line will continue for the foreseeable future. Oh, by the way, with the hoopla over the iPhone and the Mac, Apple quietly sold 9.8 million iPods during the June quarter. That puts Apple's installed base of iPods to over 110 million units. Unbelievable franchise.

I am re-evaluating my Apple numbers going forward like every other analyst is doing, and they are going higher. Component pricing to Apple's advantage is continuing and looks to be strong the next two to three quarters to go with increasing revenues.

Remember, Apple has three major legs of growth: iPod, Mac and now, iPhone. The retail store base and CPU's and software sales are all additional revenue opportunities for the three major growth legs.

My price target for Apple has been $200, but I am now raising it to $225...

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

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Last updated: August 27, 2008: 11:46 PM

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