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Is the iPhone a flop?

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Is Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone a flop? That's what the stock market seems to think, judging from the decline in the share price of Apple and the phone's exclusive vendor AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), after the telecom company reported disappointing sales numbers.

AT&T, which also had lackluster earnings, signed up 146,000 iPhone customers in the first two days of sales, below analysts' forecasts of more than 500,000, according to Reuters. How meaningful is this? After all, there is no possible way analysts could have accurately predicted sales of the iPhone since it's so unique. About the best analysts could do is make educated guesses, which have proven to be wrong.

Does this mean that there are a lot fewer gadget freaks -- sorry early adaptors -- who are dying to have what some have dubbed the Jesus phone? Not necessarily. After all, we're only talking about two days here.

But only the most rabid of geeks, including Philadelphia Mayor John Street, were so motivated to get the iPhone that they had to be among the first to get them. Other geeks, no doubt, have jobs or were smart enough to avoid the long lines that were created by the Apple hype machine.

Though sales will pick up in the coming weeks and months, it's important to remember that the people who camped out for the iPhone represent a tiny minority of consumers. Most people don't have to have the latest and greatest gizmo as soon as it comes out, especially one with a hefty $499 to $599 price tag. Our sister blog TUAW has a good rundown here of the iPhone's many bugs and a good primer of the phone here.

For the iPhone to be a success, Apple will have to convince the many non-geeks in the world, including me, of the iPhone's value, and that may be difficult.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:11 PM

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