It'll hit 200 by the end of this year, I think. Everyone is underestimating the osmotic pressure between Microsoft and Apple in the PC business. I truly believe that, like never before, new PC shoppers are weighing equally the two, and when that happens during the back-to-school and holiday seasons, we will see a serious rebalancing. Don't forget, every 1% that changes hands means a huge increase for apple. A relatively small fraction of Microsoft turnover would mean a doubling of Apple. Everyone has forgotten about the infant aTV too. Think he's done growing? Think again.,

Could'na have said it better. Apple has it. Just takes smart people and innovation. No one does it better.

George do you recommend adding on before earnings?
Mike

Just because it will hit $200 doesn't mean it should. The "lines" that we witnessed weren't that widespread. They still don't have much penetration into the enterprise market and most every report of the iPhone is "Eh". I'd be surprised if the actual numbers (net of returns) is anywhere near that 700k number ... and yes, I mean it should be lower than that.

The previous poster got only one out of four right! Apple does not have a large presence in the office market, thus Apple's consumer strategy. However, demand for iPhone was heavy AND widespread. And customer satisfaction has been high, with a few exceptions caused mostly by AT&T cell activation.

Aside from ignoring the fact that most reviews have raved about the iPhone, while listing areas for improvement, comment #3 misses the point that Apple is much more than the iPhone.

It is one of the best-known and most respected (and coolest) brand names in the world.

It is a large international retail store network with substantially more $$$ worth of merchandaise sold per square foot than ANY other American retailer, plus an online Apple store. (Meaning that Apple controls a huge part of the retail experience, connecting directly with customers without splitting sales $$$ with unmotivated big-box Mac sellers.)

It is a computer hardware business growing at three times the rate of the rest of the industry.

It is an iPod business and online iTunes Store with massive market share and new iPods hitting the market before the holiday sales season.

It is a software business with a major OS release this fall and substantial applications releases before the end of the year.

It is a company with virtually no debt and more than $16 billion in cash and short term investments.

And after all that, the iPhone has enormous growth potential as new markets come on line and new models are introduced. And Apple intends to update and improve the iPhone software regularly and painlessly, the same way it updates and upgrades iPods and Macs.

Finally, don't forget, Apple gets a share of revenue from AT&T and other networks as those iPhones are used.

I think we will see Apple at the $200 level by the end of the year. Back to school sales and holiday sales should be phenomenal. Just wish I had bought the stock back when it was $13/share. Guess I will just have to be satisfied with my 100% gain so far. Apple really has unlimited potential with the release and control of new products.

I disagree with everyone who thinks Apple hits $200 in the next 12 months, even my esteemed colleague GY. By Georges own figures Apple earns $4.50 to $4.60 in 2008. That is a P/E of 43.5 going forward, a big premium over today's impressive numbers. Even if I go beyond this optimistic outlook and say Apple earns $5.00 in 2008 that is a 40 P/E, much higher than all of you Apple supporters are willing to pay today. Why will you pay it next year? That is way beyond what I would be willing to consider. $5 x 32 P/E = $160 / shr...I might be willing to stretch to $170 if all goes well...but that's it. $5 is more than Georges anticipates and 32 P/E is higher than investors are willing to pay today so that is my top.

Two flaws to your argument: iTV is a flop. iphone is not a "business tool" or necessity by any stretch. It is a techo wonder that falls under descretionary purchase for amusement. Too much money for consumers to absorb..especially with the rate of foreclosures & real money spenditures. Including paying for the shares!

"most every report of the iPhone is 'Eh'" - Ivan

I don't know what reports you're reading, Ivan, but almost every report I've read (Time, Newsweek, USA Today, etc. etc.) says the iPhone actually lives up to the hype - and that is astounding. Oh, and these things are *still* hard to find in stores, despite your claim of lackluster demand.

But pour yourself another glass of cold haterade and we'll talk again at AAPL $200+.

Most every comment from Ivan is "Eh".

The thing that most critics of Apple's strategy don't understand is that the business market (which Apple is make fairly respectable inroads into, albeit slowly) is already pretty saturated, but the consumer market is barely touched in comparison.

The potential size of the consumer market dwarfs the business market. Apple's strategy is to inundate that market with brand awareness, and reach into peoples' homes from an assortment of directions. Talking about Apple's presence in the business market as a make or break shows awareness of how things were, not how things will be.

Do you think a company that makes refrigerators cares about their share of the "business market"? Of course not. Once upon a time, however, they had to struggle to get refrigerators accepted into homes, competing with the ice man. The struggle to get computers into homes, to be regarded as easy-to-use appliances, is a struggle that Apple has its sights on, and will win in a big way, eventually. The untapped market there is enormous.

after what I've digested from I-mania I can say
the following points.
1) my local at&t store was done in 1/2 an hour 0n 6/29.
they had 30 phones. They probably could of sold 100.
2)my opinion of it. I WANT ONE....but its too expensive.
3) it will be x-mas gift of the year.
4) so what if it is not business app. there are far more consumers then commercial accounts. People still can write them off as a business expense.
its a phone. its e-mail. its a write off PERIOD.
5) if I-phone is as big as the rest of the product line then apple makes 5.00 a share easy. valueline has it at 3.75 for 2008, your paying for growth not p/e.
6)safari will make a bigger impact then you think.
this will open up apple to more applications.
7) if the sales numbers are low then apple tanks,
everyone is looking for 1 million, if its 400k....
aapl -10 aapl -15 aapl -17 aapl -18 aapl -20
8)can't get service? no keyboard? not enough functions.... always one knuklehead in the group isn't there....

"Apple's fiscal year 2007 comes in at $24.5 billion and EPS comes in at $3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues at $31 billion and EPS at $4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year September 30, 2009, revenues at $38 billion and EPS at $5.50-5.75. Stock target at $200."

OK, let me just say that I'm glad you're not my investment advisor.

a) first off, the company's already got $2.01 in earnings in the bag for the first two quarters...so you're saying only another $1.50 for the next two quarters? If that happens, the stock will be heading DOWN!!! BIG TIME!!! $3.50-$3.60 this year would be a MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT--don't spread stuff like this because it can only hurt the story.

b) assuming you were right about this year, then a $4.50 for next year is only, what, less than a 20% growth rate in earnings from this year? Say goodbye to your little 'ole friend high 30s P/E we've got going today with those numbers. Do the math--even with a generous 25 P/E (which is what your numbers would mean), you're talking a $110-$115 stock price. NEXT YEAR--MAYBE WORSE AS PEOPLE WAKE TO THE REALITY OF VASTLY SLOWING GROWTH PICTURE.

Here's reality:

1) Apple did about 75% growth in YOY earnings growth in Q1 (0.65->1.14) and 85% growth in YOY earnings in Q2 (0.47->0.87). Split the difference for the next 2 qtrs (80% growth), and they need $0.97 at this month's announcement and $1.11 for Q4. That's $4.09 for THIS YEAR. That's basically what the street has ALREADY PRICED INTO THE STOCK.

2) Then, for next year, FY08, _minimum_ 30% growth on the $4.09 number, or $5.30. In FY08, not 09!

Fortunately, they will do this and a lot more...iPhone service revenues alone on 10m subs can add $1B to the bottom line next year--that's over $1/share in earnings, just on service, over this year. And they are going to blow away 10m units--they will do that in this calendar year alone easily.

"Two flaws to your argument: iTV is a flop. iphone is not a "business tool" or necessity by any stretch. It is a techo wonder that falls under descretionary purchase for amusement. Too much money for consumers to absorb..especially with the rate of foreclosures & real money spenditures. Including paying for the shares!"

While it is true that nearly all of Apple's pproducts are discretionary purchases, your take on the AppleTV misses the long term potential. Steve Jobs is on-record saying that right now this product is a "hobby and not a business".

However, as of July 1st, the FCC rules stipulate that cable companies must allow comsumers to use "universal" cable boxes that utilize cable cards for authentication. The weakness right now is that a cable box not provided by the cale provider probably won't work with on-demand systems. But, last year the cable industry agreed on an industry standard programming language for the boxes, OCAP (Open Cable Application Program), which will allow for true "universal" cable boxes. Time Warner and Comcast are already updating their systems to comply.

Imagine an AppleTV that could provide content from iTunes as well as serve as a cable box and DVR. I think a lot of people would spend "discretionary" $500-$700 for this, and I believe that this is where the AppleTV is eventually going. If Apple includes DVR service, you also would pickup recurring subscription revenue like that of TiVo.

If you look at the Board of Director's you will see Dr. Eric Schmidt the CEO of good old GOOGLE. If you follow Google you will see that they never split their stock, they keep the short sellers at bay with high stock prices ( takes alot of money to short the stock)and achieve great growth,earnings and valuations. They also have Al Gore who invented the Internet, what a winning team of advisors.