Tobias, when I read to the line "8.6%" by 2016, I immediately scolled down here wanted to write an opinion objecting that. However, you hit the precise point I wanted to express.

Market adoption works more like a switch rather than a dimmer.

Apple have said that 50% of new Mac buyers at their own stores are switchers moving from PCs. That's a pretty high adoption rate, and shows the strength the platform is enjoying from outside of the tradional Mac-purchasing market.
Coupled with news earlier this year that Apple had doubled its market share of TOTAL laptop sales inthe US from 6% to a whopping 12% in just 5 months since the release of theMacBook Pro at Easter, and you'll understand why an 8-9% markets share for the Mac platform is definitely realistic, and has in fact been surpassed by a 50% margin already in laptop sales.

People forget that the total market share fgure includes esoteric "PCs" like Windows-based ATMs, cash registers, and hundreds of thousands of corporate PCs in offices doing nothing other than running MS Word. Once you move to the consumer market, where Apple focuses its efforts, the story is dramatically different, as their 12% (as of October - probably higher by now) of market share clearly demonstrates.

Javaflash, you are correct. Market adoption is more like a switch than a dimmer. However, in this case the switch has already been thrown. Mac adoption by the market is taking place at a breakneck pace, evidenced by the success of Apple's MacBook laptop range. Wake up and smell the coffee :-)

I am a frim believer in Apple as an undervalued stock that is growing leaps and bounds. I bought it a few months ago at $52 and it has hit over $93. This is a $115 stock. The upcoming release of the iPhone along with the rumor of a iGames site and game machine so nothing short of brilliance. Can Apple hit $200 in the next coming year? I wouldn't bet against it.

Wouldn't a demographic break down be far more valuable than just raw market share numbers. Considering the vast majority of PC's are sold to enterprise and large business, and apple doesn't compete in this sector it's hard to fault them for being a niche when they just don't partake in that market. I would much prefer to see those numbers broken down by segment, such as domestic / education etc. Apple sells more computers than sony, yet you don't hear people calling sony niche?

Apple has been down for the count over the years so many times that I have lost track.
You would think with Microsoft's dominance over Apple with the Office Windows / Mac coordination ( read intimidation) and the ownership of 10 % of Apple's non voting shares that it would all over for Apple innovation especially into new product areas.
What is amazing is their absolute dominance in the mp3 iPod field.

Apple market share gains are always good news, thank for the write-up. However, you never define which market you are talking about. I presume you mean USA, but then what do you mean by 'whole market' (end of para 1)? If you are talking about the AmericaWideWeb, please specify, and be aware that you are posting to the WorldWid... you get my point. ;)

As soon as Apple introduces their next OS - the one capable of running both OS X and Windows simultaneously - we'll be tossing my wife's old, clunky Windows laptop and replacing it with a new MacBook. She needs that Windows OS to teach online, but the rest of our house is (and has been since 1984) totally Mac. I suspect we are not alone in anticipating the new Mac OS and making purchase plans around it. That will be the best of the best world - the Mac - and the best of the not-so-best world - Windows. Can't wait.

I like the apple platform but i am sending in my MacBook Pro for a refund. here's the problem, which i am surprised no journalist is writing about. I can only hope a blogger here will carry the torch.
The screens are bad on the MBP's...i just went through two and both have very uneven illumination. some people have also been reporting poor color branding though mine wasn't that bad.

but the screens on both were horrible. Most people do not notice or don't realize its importance, but for those in the visual arts field, those who traditionally used Apple computers, we are the ones being screwed as Apple is ignoring quality control as they rapidly expand. they need to spend more on R&D and quality control...period.

If the screen issue affected a dell computer model, then we would know about it on a much wider scale...simply because the hate towards Microsoft and Dell is strong. But people love Apple too much to criticize it. This needs to change because the visual artists are simply not as thrilled with their Apple as they once were.

Anyone who wants to see complaints, visit various mac forum boards. for example macrumors dot com.

I can only hope apple will correct the display issues because they are upsetting those who stood by them originally and always..the graphic artists, the photo artists, and video editors.

i am giving them till february to fix the problem at which point i may repurchase the computer. if not i may settle for a iMac though there is no lesson taught if i just give them my money anyways (and i want a laptop!!)...but darn it, I like the Apple platform.

I do graphic design, photography, and video editing, and I haven't noticed any problem with my Mac Book Pro's screen --and I'm not just saying that because I "love Apple too much to criticize it". Maybe there was a bad batch of screens, or a problem that was fixed before I bought mine, or the MBP screen has a shallower viewing angle than your previous powerbook? Mine has even illumination, acceptable grain, and good color.

For what it's worth I've calibrated (using one of them hardware calibration devices) both my MBP screen and a 2nd monitor, a Dell 2405FPW, and photos look better when I drag them over to the MBP.

I don't think it's necessarily a conspiracy of silence on the part of Mac fanboys when only some people complain about their MBP screens. It's quite possible that the problem doesn't extend to all, or even a significant percentage of shipped units.